Xmas eve, 3am, I was on one of the $4/8 tables at Bellagio, looking into the eyes of a drunk compatriot across the table and pondering hard on the following hand:

Pre-flop: (7 players) Hero is on the button with black nines
Under the gun raises, 3 folds Hero raises, blinds fold, UTG calls.
Flop: 3c Ks 4s (7.5 Small Bets, 2 players)
UTG bets, Hero…?

 

I could:

- Raise the flop, plan on betting the turn and checking behind on the river.
- Raise the flop, plan on checking the turn and calling one on the river.
- Call the flop, plan on raising the turn.
- Calldown.
- Fold.

 

What should I do?  Well, There’s a phrase that gets beaten to death in scientific circle, almost to the point of being a bad joke. “It depends.” If you’re clever enough, you can make yourself a whole career as a scientific advisor/researcher by saying those two words again and again in different ways and contexts (just different enough to keep things fresh). 

OK, to be ironic to the research work I am doing daily is not the purpose here, my questions at the particular moment were:  “What does his bet mean about his range of hands?” and “How will he respond to aggression from me?”  There are so many variables that it might take me a Ph.D. thesis to fully analyze this situation.  I didn’t have the luxury on the table.

Folding is attractive if my friend is exceedingly tight and unpredictable. Exceedingly tight should be obvious. After all, if he will always have at least a king to bet, then it’s an easy fold. But most players aren’t anywhere near that tight and definitely not this drunk Chinese guy.  Unpredictable should also make you more willing to fold. For instance, say your opponent has a king 70% of the time when he bets, and doesn’t have a king the other 30%. But he’s 100% predictable. If you call the flop, he’ll bet again with a king or better and check without. Then your strategy is to call the flop, folding to a bet, or betting after a check.  Given the status my compatriot was then, it was hard to predict his behavior.

If your opponent is looser (more willing to donk bet with weaker pairs and as a semi-bluff), then folding with position and a solid pair becomes the wrong play. Say your opponent likes to go nuts on the flop with lots of hands, but he slows way down on the turn. You should exploit that fact by raising and reraising with him on the flop. After all, your pair of nines is still ahead of lots of hands, and you should take advantage by getting in the bets when you can get them. But you should slow down as well on the turn and river, since if your opponent is still raising you, it likely means trouble for you. So against someone who puts in a lot of flop action, I might put in four bets on the flop and then put in one bet each on the turn and river. (I.e., if he checks, you bet. If he bets, you call.)

Now say your opponent is more timid than that. His donk bet is significantly likely to be a king, but not likely enough that you should fold. And when it’s not a king, it might well be a semi-bluff. (Say he flopped a gutshot with A5 or a flush draw.) And if you raise him, he’ll probably not 3-bet you as a bluff. Then raising immediately can be a good play. If you get 3-bet, you can either fold immediately (if you’re quite sure he wouldn’t 3-bet as a bluff) or you can call and see what happens on the turn, planning to fold to a bet.

If he might 3-bet you with a flush or straight draw on the flop, then you might try a different line. You could call the flop, planning to raise the turn and check the river. This “free showdown” play works great on hands like this one when you can count on your opponent backing down to the turn raise. So the action would go like this. Bet and call on the flop. Bet, raise, and call on the turn. Then check and check on the river. If you get 3-bet on the turn, you simply fold. This line gets maximum money out of a draw, but gives up relatively little if your opponent is almost certain to have at least a king if he 3-bets the turn.

If your opponent is tough and extremely unpredictable - a real threat to 3-bet bluff you on the turn - then just calling all the way down can be ok also (generally betting if your opponent checks). It’s not a great line to take, but sometimes it’s best if your opponent is bluffing too often to fold, if your opponent would reraise as a bluff, but if that reraise would signify that you’re usually behind. That is, just calling down may be best if you would groan if your opponent 3-bet, but then you would look at the size of the pot and decide that you still had to call down anyway because of the odds you were getting.

I don't like raising the flop and checking the turn. The best place actually to use that line is if you think there’s a good chance you’re behind, and if you think checking the turn is likely to induce a river bluff from a hand like a gutshot. If there’s a good chance you’re behind, you want to minimize betting. But you also want the extra chance to snap off a bluff on the end. (If you thought that your opponent wasn’t that likely to bluff the river, then raising the flop and betting the turn, planning to fold to a check-raise would be better.)

 

Whichever way I was about to choose, the bottom line is: The #1 priority in hands like this one is to decide as soon as possible whether I am taking the hand to showdown or not.  Either fold early, or go to showdown.  Once made that decision, HOW to get to showdown isn’t that important. Raise the flop, raise the turn, check the turn, check the river. . . 

 

The top question is stay or go. And the decision is to be made in the beginning, not the end.  Everything after that is details.

 

If I have decided to FOLD one year ago, why am I beating myself to death 365 days after on the details? 

 

 

You got to know when to hold em, know when to fold em,
Know when to walk away and know when to run.
 

 

P.S.

I rerasied the flop, he 3-bet, I capped.  He checked the turn, I bet, he check-raised.  I backed off and called.  He checked the rive, I checked the river.  He showed me pocket 7's while I collected a nice pot of $90 after tossing a couple of blue chips to the dealer.  A good start of my Vegas venture.